IPO Allotment Forecast

Rank the Top 3 Pool A/B combinations by joint probability, estimate average allotted lots by tier, and supplement them with signals from the warning system.

Allotment output is research only. Official allotment announcements are definitive.

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Candidates

Samples

80/80

Time-weighted rel. error?

21.6%

P90 rel. error?

74.6%

Current IPO allotment list

ZJ INNOLIGHT

03308Model basis: Strong basis

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One-lot avg. allotted?

Public offer lots

109,000 lots

A-tail estimate?

B-head avg. allotted?

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Primary · Top 1

✓ Viewing

Proportional + Flat

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Alternative · Top 2

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probabilitySign in to view

Alternative · Top 3

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probabilitySign in to view

Latest listed IPO backtest

BEFAR GROUP

06745新材料Jul 10

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One-lot hit rate

Predicted one-lot hit rate

8.5%

Error 70.2%

Official one-lot hit rate

5.0%

A tail

Predicted A-tail allotted

1.549

Error 22.5%

Official A-tail allotted

B head

Predicted B-head allotted

8.104

Error 15.8%

Official B-head allotted

NEXCHIP

02249半導體Jul 10

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One-lot hit rate

Predicted one-lot hit rate

8.9%

Error 11.2%

Official one-lot hit rate

8.0%

A tail

Predicted A-tail allotted

1.258

Error 58.1%

Official A-tail allotted

B head

Predicted B-head allotted

5.781

Error 15.6%

Official B-head allotted

CCTC

06951新材料Jul 9

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One-lot hit rate

Predicted one-lot hit rate

5.7%

Error 727.7%

Official one-lot hit rate

0.7%

A tail

Predicted A-tail allotted

0.598

Error 78.3%

Official A-tail allotted

2.76

B head

Predicted B-head allotted

2.066

Error 110.8%

Official B-head allotted

0.98

ROKAE ROBOTICS

03752人工智能/機器人Jul 9

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One-lot hit rate

Predicted one-lot hit rate

12.7%

Error 26.5%

Official one-lot hit rate

10.0%

A tail

Predicted A-tail allotted

1.659

Error 46.4%

Official A-tail allotted

1.134

B head

Predicted B-head allotted

12.996

Error 18.8%

Official B-head allotted

QIYUNSHAN FOOD

02797消費Jul 9

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One-lot hit rate

Predicted one-lot hit rate

3.1%

Error 3322.5%

Official one-lot hit rate

0.1%

A tail

Predicted A-tail allotted

0.413

Error 54.1%

Official A-tail allotted

0.9

B head

Predicted B-head allotted

0.812

Error 22.4%

Official B-head allotted

0.664

LUXSHARE ICT

02475家電/消費電子Jul 9

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One-lot hit rate

Predicted one-lot hit rate

95.6%

Error 4.4%

Official one-lot hit rate

100.0%

A tail

Predicted A-tail allotted

195.987

Error 101.0%

Official A-tail allotted

97.514

B head

Predicted B-head allotted

157.957

Error 21.0%

Official B-head allotted

200

DTECH

01377工業製造Jul 9

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One-lot hit rate

Predicted one-lot hit rate

3.6%

Error 19.9%

Official one-lot hit rate

3.0%

A tail

Predicted A-tail allotted

0.208

Error 6.9%

Official A-tail allotted

0.195

B head

Predicted B-head allotted

0.852

Error 42.0%

Official B-head allotted

0.6

RIGOL

00537工業製造Jul 9

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One-lot hit rate

Predicted one-lot hit rate

13.1%

Error 63.2%

Official one-lot hit rate

8.0%

A tail

Predicted A-tail allotted

2.212

Error 234.7%

Official A-tail allotted

0.661

B head

Predicted B-head allotted

13.83

Error 97.6%

Official B-head allotted

BASICSEMISystem warning

09971半導體Jul 8

View warning

This sample triggered a warning. Open the detail page to review the warning context.

One-lot hit rate

Predicted one-lot hit rate

5.0%

Error 2825.5%

Official one-lot hit rate

0.2%

A tail

Predicted A-tail allotted

0.505

Error 57.3%

Official A-tail allotted

1.182

B head

Predicted B-head allotted

0.446

Error 1.2%

Official B-head allotted

0.441

Extra-focus scenario

Scenario: Proportional + Flat

View warning

One-lot hit rate

Model

0.3%

Error 47.8%

Official

0.2%

A tail

Model

1.155

Error 2.3%

Official

1.182

B head

Model

0.446

Error 1.2%

Official

0.441

BAOGAI

08090新材料Jul 8

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One-lot hit rate

Predicted one-lot hit rate

2.5%

Error 394.4%

Official one-lot hit rate

0.5%

A tail

Predicted A-tail allotted

0.26

Error 51.8%

Official A-tail allotted

0.171

B head

Predicted B-head allotted

0.357

Error 9.3%

Official B-head allotted

0.327

Stock	Predicted one-lot hit rate	Official one-lot hit rate	Predicted A-tail allotted	Official A-tail allotted	Predicted B-head allotted	Official B-head allotted
BEFAR GROUP 06745新材料Jul 10	8.5% Error 70.2%	5.0%	1.549 Error 22.5%	2	8.104 Error 15.8%	7	View allotment detail
NEXCHIP 02249半導體Jul 10	8.9% Error 11.2%	8.0%	1.258 Error 58.1%	3	5.781 Error 15.6%	5	View allotment detail
CCTC 06951新材料Jul 9	5.7% Error 727.7%	0.7%	0.598 Error 78.3%	2.76	2.066 Error 110.8%	0.98	View allotment detail
ROKAE ROBOTICS 03752人工智能/機器人Jul 9	12.7% Error 26.5%	10.0%	1.659 Error 46.4%	1.134	12.996 Error 18.8%	16	View allotment detail
QIYUNSHAN FOOD 02797消費Jul 9	3.1% Error 3322.5%	0.1%	0.413 Error 54.1%	0.9	0.812 Error 22.4%	0.664	View allotment detail
LUXSHARE ICT 02475家電/消費電子Jul 9	95.6% Error 4.4%	100.0%	195.987 Error 101.0%	97.514	157.957 Error 21.0%	200	View allotment detail
DTECH 01377工業製造Jul 9	3.6% Error 19.9%	3.0%	0.208 Error 6.9%	0.195	0.852 Error 42.0%	0.6	View allotment detail
RIGOL 00537工業製造Jul 9	13.1% Error 63.2%	8.0%	2.212 Error 234.7%	0.661	13.83 Error 97.6%	7	View allotment detail
BASICSEMISystem warning 09971半導體Jul 8 This sample triggered a warning. Open the detail page to review the warning context.	5.0% Error 2825.5%	0.2%	0.505 Error 57.3%	1.182	0.446 Error 1.2%	0.441	View warning
Extra-focus scenario Scenario: Proportional + Flat View warning One-lot hit rate Model 0.3% Error 47.8% Official 0.2% A tail Model 1.155 Error 2.3% Official 1.182 B head Model 0.446 Error 1.2% Official 0.441
BAOGAI 08090新材料Jul 8	2.5% Error 394.4%	0.5%	0.26 Error 51.8%	0.171	0.357 Error 9.3%	0.327	View allotment detail