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Hong Kong IPO win-rate forecast

Compare one-lot win rate, A-tail, B-head and top-hammer expected allotment. The main reference combines public-offer supply, clawback, demand and Pool A/B patterns; official announcements remain definitive.

Win-rate output is research only. Official allotment announcements are definitive.
How to read this page
  1. Look at each IPO’s one-lot hit rate first, then A-tail and B-head average allotment. Those three numbers are the ones most people use.
  2. “Most likely allotment pattern” explains how the current numbers were estimated. The detail page can compare other possible patterns.
  3. An extra-watch note means the main reference is less certain, and names one pattern to compare first. Open the detail page for that pattern’s numbers; it does not change the figures here.
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Candidates
3
Samples
80/80
Time-weighted rel. error?
23.9%
P90 rel. error?
67.8%

These figures summarise recent listed samples and show overall model error. They are not the win rate of any single IPO.

IPOs you can check now

SWL TOUR
06157Model basis: Strong basis

Data updated · Oct 21, 2026, 12:11 HKT

View win-rate detail
One-lot hit rate?
1.9%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Predicted A-tail allotted?
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Predicted B-head allotted?
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Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool. Public offer lots 4,476 lots

Most likely allotment pattern
Larger Pool A applications get less extra allotment；Pool B high-tier allotment drops quickly
Diminishing + Very steepLikelihood Sign in to view

The detail page can compare other likely patterns.

MICROINTELLIGEN
03275Model basis: Strong basisExtra watch

Data updated · Oct 26, 2026, 12:06 HKT

Compare on the detail page
One-lot hit rate?
20.9%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Predicted A-tail allotted?
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Predicted B-head allotted?
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Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool. Public offer lots 37,276 lots

Most likely allotment pattern
Larger Pool A applications get less extra allotment；Pool B allotment is similar across tiers
Diminishing + FlatLikelihood Sign in to view

The detail page can compare other likely patterns.

Extra watch

The main reference is less certain. No single pattern is raised as a replacement; start with the next-likely:

Larger Pool A applications get less extra allotment；Pool B allotment declines gradually with size

Diminishing + Gradual

This is not a new main reference. It is the pattern most worth checking first after this note.

DSBJ
02384Model basis: Strong basis

Data updated · Oct 23, 2026, 16:29 HKT

View win-rate detail
One-lot hit rate?
98.0%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Predicted A-tail allotted?
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Predicted B-head allotted?
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Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool. Public offer lots 113,784 lots

Most likely allotment pattern
Pool A's allotment rate is roughly flat across application tiers；Pool B allotment is similar across tiers
Flat + FlatLikelihood Sign in to view

The detail page can compare other likely patterns.

Latest listed-sample review

For each sample: pattern coverage first, then error. If there was an extra-watch note, the stock column shows the outcome plus the comparison-pattern one-lot error as supporting data.

Sector
TRANSSIONCompare hit
02636人工智能/機器人Oct 15
View win-rate detail
One-lot hit rate
Predicted one-lot hit rate
98.0%
Error 2.0%
Official one-lot hit rate
100.0%
A tail
Predicted A-tail allotted
185.786
Error 72.5%
Official A-tail allotted
102
B head
Predicted B-head allotted
263.896
Error 47.2%
Official B-head allotted
500
ESWIN COMPUTINGCompare hit
01256半導體Oct 9
View win-rate detail
One-lot hit rate
Predicted one-lot hit rate
53.5%
Error 433.7%
Official one-lot hit rate
10.0%
A tail
Predicted A-tail allotted
17.535
Error 16.3%
Official A-tail allotted
146.2
B head
Predicted B-head allotted
149.107
Error 40.7%
Official B-head allotted
251.462
CAMSENSEMost likely hit
06802半導體Sep 30
View win-rate detail
One-lot hit rate
Predicted one-lot hit rate
1.1%
Error 44.5%
Official one-lot hit rate
2.0%
A tail
Predicted A-tail allotted
0.185
Error 52.3%
Official A-tail allotted
0.122
B head
Predicted B-head allotted
0.249
Error 7.7%
Official B-head allotted
0.27
KINWONGCompare hitNote was usefulCompare error 10.1%
03228未分類Sep 29
View win-rate detail
One-lot hit rate
Predicted one-lot hit rate
16.6%
Error 457.4%
Official one-lot hit rate
3.0%
A tail
Predicted A-tail allotted
2.558
Error 4.6%
Official A-tail allotted
9.327
B head
Predicted B-head allotted
6.338
Error 12.0%
Official B-head allotted
7.2
ROBOTECHNIKCompare hit
03757未分類Sep 29
View win-rate detail
One-lot hit rate
Predicted one-lot hit rate
26.8%
Error 15.2%
Official one-lot hit rate
35.0%
A tail
Predicted A-tail allotted
20.616
Error 73.7%
Official A-tail allotted
11
B head
Predicted B-head allotted
27.388
Error 54.4%
Official B-head allotted
60
DIRECT DRIVECompare hit
06731未分類Sep 29
View win-rate detail
One-lot hit rate
Predicted one-lot hit rate
18.3%
Error 69.5%
Official one-lot hit rate
60.0%
A tail
Predicted A-tail allotted
7.831
Error 56.6%
Official A-tail allotted
5
B head
Predicted B-head allotted
55.021
Error 38.2%
Official B-head allotted
75
RA MATERIALSMost likely hit
09607未分類Sep 29
View win-rate detail
One-lot hit rate
Predicted one-lot hit rate
45.2%
Error 54.8%
Official one-lot hit rate
100.0%
A tail
Predicted A-tail allotted
34.227
Error 38.6%
Official A-tail allotted
55.722
B head
Predicted B-head allotted
418.148
Error 63.2%
Official B-head allotted
1135.556
LIGENTPattern missedNote was usefulMain-ref error 163.3%
09856半導體Sep 22
View win-rate detail
One-lot hit rate
Predicted one-lot hit rate
10.6%
Error 163.3%
Official one-lot hit rate
4.0%
A tail
Predicted A-tail allotted
6.743
Error 83.0%
Official A-tail allotted
39.571
B head
Predicted B-head allotted
34.154
Error 23.1%
Official B-head allotted
44.389
TRANSWARPPattern missed
06727人工智能/機器人Sep 21
View win-rate detail
One-lot hit rate
Predicted one-lot hit rate
21.8%
Error 118.2%
Official one-lot hit rate
10.0%
A tail
Predicted A-tail allotted
6.538
Error 73.8%
Official A-tail allotted
25
B head
Predicted B-head allotted
42.189
Error 39.2%
Official B-head allotted
69.439
EXCELLAND ROBOTPattern missed
03231人工智能/機器人Sep 9
View win-rate detail
One-lot hit rate
Predicted one-lot hit rate
20.4%
Error 16.9%
Official one-lot hit rate
24.5%
A tail
Predicted A-tail allotted
7.17
Error 2027.1%
Official A-tail allotted
0.337
B head
Predicted B-head allotted
39.364
Error 61.8%
Official B-head allotted
24.324

Hong Kong IPO win rates, Pool A/B and allotment results

This is the IPO win-rate topic hub: start with one-lot probability and expected lots, then compare A-tail, B-head, clawback rules, and top-hammer applications across funding tiers.

Forecasts are scenario estimates for the subscription stage. Final win rates, allocated lots, clawback, and public-offer allocation are determined by the issuer's official allotment announcement.

One-lot win rate

Understand one-lot probability and expected allocated lots.

Pool A and Pool B

Compare A-tail and B-head thresholds and allocation rules.

Clawback mechanism

See how oversubscription may change public-offer supply and win rates.

Top-hammer application

Understand its relationship with Pool B, allocation, and funding use.

IPO win-rate questions

What does the one-lot win rate mean?

It is the share of one-lot applicants who receive at least one lot. It is not the allocation ratio for every tier and does not directly predict the lots received by a large application.

How does a forecast differ from the official allotment result?

A forecast estimates scenarios from public-offer supply, applicant counts, and historical patterns. The issuer's official announcement confirms clawback, Pool A/B allocation, and lots received at each tier.

Why compare A-tail, B-head, and top-hammer applications?

They represent different funding tiers and positions in the allocation table. Entering Pool B does not guarantee better capital efficiency, so expected lots, funding use, and scenario risk should be compared together.