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Hong Kong IPO Price-Direction Accuracy & Backtest

Put the call made at the time next to later grey-market and listing-day results. This page reviews historical samples. It is not a future guarantee and not an allotment win-rate.

Historical-sample review for research only. Not investment advice.
How to read this page
  1. Start with hit rate: whether the direction call matched the actual move in this window.
  2. Then switch between grey-market and listing-day. The two targets are different; do not mix them.
  3. The list below compares each IPO’s call at the time with the later result. Only a clear opposite direction counts as a miss.
Sample period 2026-07-07 - 2026-10-07How a hit is counted?Only a clear opposite direction counts as a miss
Accuracy?
87.5%
21/24 IPOs direction calls held
Samples
24
Last 3 months
Median move
-0.9%
Average move +12.7%
Opposite direction
3
13%

Did they mostly rise or fall?

First see whether actual results in this window leaned up or down, then read it against the hit rate above.

Later moves were mixed
Rose
6 · 25%
Little changed
11 · 46%
Fell
7 · 29%
Little changed：About ±5% versus the listing price · Of which Big up 4 · Up 2 · Flat 11 · Down 6 · Big down 1

Is the latest batch still holding?

Do not rely on the overall hit rate alone. This splits earlier samples from the latest 10, so older samples cannot hide a weaker recent batch.

Earlier samples
92.9%
13/14
Latest 10
80.0%
8/10

The latest batch is weaker than earlier samples. The overall hit rate may be lifted by older names.

What we called then, what happened later

When the call was more positive, did they more often rise later? When it was more cautious, did they more often fall? This is a historical observation, not a future guarantee.

3
3
1
RoseLittle changedFell
Call was more positive
Later moves were mixed · 7 IPOs · Accuracy 85.7% · Median move +1.9%
1
3
3
RoseLittle changedFell
Call was a neutral watch
Later moves were mixed · 7 IPOs · Accuracy 100.0% · Median move -4.5%
2
5
3
RoseLittle changedFell
Call was more cautious
Later moves were mixed · 10 IPOs · Accuracy 80.0% · Median move -1.0%
Rose · Up more than about 5% versus listingLittle changed · About ±5% versus the listing priceFell · Down more than about 5% versus listing

IPO-by-IPO comparison

Newest listings first. Read the call at the time, then the later result. Matches the time window above
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