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Official listing-plan update

Existing model output is only a historical snapshot from before invalidation and is no longer a current subscribable IPO forecast.

SWL TOUR

06157

Numbers default to the most likely allotment pattern. Clicking another pattern only compares the table; extra-watch notes are historical comparisons and do not change the main reference.

Data updated · Oct 21, 2026, 12:11 HKT

Model basis: Strong basis

How to read this page

Start with one-lot, A-tail and B-head. The table below defaults to the most likely pattern.
The three cards are more likely allotment patterns, not a ranking contest. Clicking another card only compares how the numbers change; it does not replace the main reference.
An extra-watch note names one pattern to compare first. Click it to see how the numbers change. It is not a new main reference and not trading advice.

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.9%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Official one-lot hit rate?

Predicted A-tail allotted?

Predicted B-head allotted?

Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool.

Public offer lots

4,476 lots

The leading scenario may change with final margin demand

The main forecast uses a margin multiple near Sign in to view → Sign in to view

If the final margin multiple is near Sign in to view → Sign in to view

These are scenarios recalculated at selected margin multiples. The levels are test points, not exact switching thresholds or forecasts of the final multiple.

More likely allotment patterns

“Most likely” is the default method for the current numbers. The other cards are next-likely patterns for comparison. Clicking them does not replace the main reference.

Click to compare the table below. The table changes; the main reference does not.

Average allotment by tier

Key tiers are 1 lot, A-tail, B-head and top hammer. The core column is average allotted lots; the official column appears after allotment is published.

Table scenario

Larger Pool A applications get less extra allotment；Pool B high-tier allotment drops quickly

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount	Expected allotment value
1 lot	1	Pool A	1.9%	-	-	0m	0m
A tail	900	Pool A	Sign in to view	Sign in to view	Sign in to view	Sign in to view	Sign in to view
B head	1,000	Pool B	Sign in to view	Sign in to view	Sign in to view	Sign in to view	Sign in to view
Top hammer	2,238	Pool B	Sign in to view	Sign in to view	Sign in to view	Sign in to view	Sign in to view

Win-rate forecasts are informational research output. Likelihood is the published scenario view. Extra-watch notes use forward-only historical samples, do not change the main-reference numbers, are not official allotment certainty, and are not subscription advice.