RA MATERIALS

09607

Numbers default to the most likely allotment pattern. Clicking another pattern only compares the table; extra-watch notes are historical comparisons and do not change the main reference.

Model basis: Limited basis

How to read this page

Start with one-lot, A-tail and B-head. The table below defaults to the most likely pattern.
The three cards are more likely allotment patterns, not a ranking contest. Clicking another card only compares how the numbers change; it does not replace the main reference.
An extra-watch note names one pattern to compare first. Click it to see how the numbers change. It is not a new main reference and not trading advice.

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

5.5%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Official one-lot hit rate?

Predicted A-tail allotted?

1.140 lots

Predicted B-head allotted?

3.101 lots

Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool.

Public offer lots

68,118 lots

Extra watch

The main reference is less certain. After this note, compare first:

Pool A is closer to allotment by application size；Pool B allotment is similar across tiers

Proportional + Flat

This is not a new main reference. It is the pattern most worth checking first after this note.

More likely allotment patterns

“Most likely” is the default method for the current numbers. The other cards are next-likely patterns for comparison. Clicking them does not replace the main reference.

Click to compare the table below. The table changes; the main reference does not.

Average allotment by tier

Key tiers are 1 lot, A-tail, B-head and top hammer. The core column is average allotted lots; the official column appears after allotment is published.

Table scenario

Larger Pool A applications get less extra allotment；Pool B allotment is similar across tiers

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount	Expected allotment value
1 lot	1	Pool A	5.5%	-	-	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	1.140 lots	-	-	4.4m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	3.101 lots	-	-	8.8m	0m
Top hammer	34,059	Pool B	52.791 lots	-	-	149.9m	0.2m

Win-rate forecasts are informational research output. Likelihood is the published scenario view. Extra-watch notes use forward-only historical samples, do not change the main-reference numbers, are not official allotment certainty, and are not subscription advice.