RA MATERIALS

09607

Numbers default to the most likely allotment pattern. Clicking another pattern only compares the table; extra-watch notes are historical comparisons and do not change the main reference.

Data updated · Sep 30, 2026, 18:29 HKT

Model basis: Strong basis

How to read this page

Start with one-lot, A-tail and B-head. The table below defaults to the most likely pattern.
The three cards are more likely allotment patterns, not a ranking contest. Clicking another card only compares how the numbers change; it does not replace the main reference.
An extra-watch note names one pattern to compare first. Click it to see how the numbers change. It is not a new main reference and not trading advice.

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

47.0%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Official one-lot hit rate?

100.0%

Predicted A-tail allotted?

34.672 lots

Official A-tail allotted

55.722 lots

Predicted B-head allotted?

418.921 lots

Official B-head allotted

1,135.556 lots

Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool.

Public offer lots

68,118 lots

More likely allotment patterns

“Most likely” is the default method for the current numbers. The other cards are next-likely patterns for comparison. Clicking them does not replace the main reference.

Click to compare the table below. The table changes; the main reference does not.

Average allotment by tier

Key tiers are 1 lot, A-tail, B-head and top hammer. The core column is average allotted lots; the official column appears after allotment is published.

Table scenario

Larger Pool A applications get less extra allotment；Pool B allotment is similar across tiers

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount	Expected allotment value
1 lot	1	Pool A	47.0%	100.0%	Relative deviation 53.0% Absolute diff. 53.0%	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	34.672 lots	55.722 lots	Relative deviation 37.8% Absolute diff. 21.050 lots	4.4m	0.2m
B head	2,000	Pool B	418.921 lots	1,135.556 lots	Relative deviation 63.1% Absolute diff. 716.634 lots	8.8m	1.8m
Top hammer	34,059	Pool B	6,966.137 lots	-	-	149.9m	30.7m

Win-rate forecasts are informational research output. Likelihood is the published scenario view. Extra-watch notes use forward-only historical samples, do not change the main-reference numbers, are not official allotment certainty, and are not subscription advice.