One-lot hit rate is free. Pro unlocks A-tail, B-head, top-hammer, full tier tables, and allotment-form comparisons. Content is general information and research only, not investment advice.
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09856Numbers default to the most likely allotment pattern. Clicking another pattern only compares the table; extra-watch notes are historical comparisons and do not change the main reference.
- Start with one-lot, A-tail and B-head. The table below defaults to the most likely pattern.
- The three cards are more likely allotment patterns, not a ranking contest. Clicking another card only compares how the numbers change; it does not replace the main reference.
- An extra-watch note names one pattern to compare first. Click it to see how the numbers change. It is not a new main reference and not trading advice.
Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.
Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool.
The one-lot forecast uses a terminal margin estimate dynamically calibrated to the remaining subscription time. It is trajectory-based, not an observed final value. Similar-history range：Pro unlock。
The main reference is less certain. No single pattern is raised as a replacement; start with the next-likely:
Pool A is closer to per-applicant allotment；Pool B allotment is similar across tiers
Headcount + Flat
This is not a new main reference. It is the pattern most worth checking first after this note.
More likely allotment patterns
“Most likely” is the default method for the current numbers. The other cards are next-likely patterns for comparison. Clicking them does not replace the main reference.
Click to compare the table below. The table changes; the main reference does not.
Average allotment by tier
| Type | Lots | Pool | Predicted avg. allotted? | Official avg. allotted | Deviation | Application amount | Expected allotment value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 lot | 1 | Pool A | 36.0% | - | - | 0m | 0m |
A tail | 1,000 | Pool A | Pro unlock | Pro unlock | Pro unlock | Pro unlock | Pro unlock |
B head | 2,000 | Pool B | Pro unlock | Pro unlock | Pro unlock | Pro unlock | Pro unlock |
Top hammer | 86,007 | Pool B | Pro unlock | Pro unlock | Pro unlock | Pro unlock | Pro unlock |
Win-rate forecasts are informational research output. Likelihood is the published scenario view. Extra-watch notes use forward-only historical samples, do not change the main-reference numbers, are not official allotment certainty, and are not subscription advice.