TermUpdated: 2026-07-09
What is the one-lot win rate?
The one-lot win rate is the probability that an investor applying for one board lot receives at least one lot.
After learning one-lot win rate, check current allotment forecasts
HK IPO AI estimates allotment using public-offer supply, Pool A/B boundaries, subscription demand, applicant pressure, and historical allotment curves.
What to check after one-lot odds
Whether public-offer supply is enough
A-tail versus B-head efficiency
One-lot odds versus capital lock-up
Whether historical error is acceptable
Plain meaning
It is an allotment probability for the public offer. It is not a return forecast and it does not describe what happens when applying for many lots.
Why it matters
It helps estimate the chance of a small application being allocated shares. A low one-lot rate often appears in hot IPOs, but it does not guarantee price upside.
How to read it
Read it together with public offer oversubscription, clawback supply, pool A/B allocation, entry fee and expected first-day behavior.
How it appears here
HK IPO AI shows one-lot estimates on the allotment prediction page and places the actual or estimated one-lot rate next to entry fee, oversubscription and first-day return on IPO detail pages.
Common mistakes
- Treating one-lot win rate as the probability of making money.
- Ignoring capital lock-up and refund timing.
- Assuming larger applications improve allocation linearly.