What is trend confirmation?

The displayed first-day return is usually close versus final offer price. Hit rate and average return also check whether the session stayed weak, only turned positive late, or has daily bars only. Those records are downweighted, so backtest results should not be read as the exchange's official close-to-offer return.

Close-only figures can treat a late bounce or a fade from highs as a full-day trend. Trend confirmation makes historical comparisons cleaner. It is not a forecast of the next IPO.

Deviation type, sample action and sample weight on the backtest page show whether a record was counted as a full trend. Read hit rate with those marks.

The backtest page separates grey market and first-day targets and marks deviation types. The displayed return and the backtest reading of the same IPO can differ.