What are expected lots?

Expected lots is the model-estimated average allocation. It is not a guaranteed number of lots.

Plain meaning

It is a probability-weighted expected value across possible allocation outcomes. For example, 0.12 expected lots means the long-run average is about 0.12 lots, not a guaranteed 0.12 lots. The one-lot tier is shown as a percentage: average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot.

Why it matters

It is better than simple win rate for comparing application tiers, but it must be read with application amount, entry fee and risk.

How to read it

Higher expected lots means more average allocation at that tier. If the tier requires much more capital, capital efficiency may still be worse. The one-lot percentage and other tiers in lots are different units.

How it appears here

HK IPO AI shows expected lots for one-lot, A-tail and B-head tiers. Clicking a comparison pattern only changes the table; the main reference stays the same.

Common mistakes

Reading 0.12 expected lots as a guaranteed allocation of 0.12 lots.
Comparing expected lots without comparing application amount.
Ignoring that final allotment rules can differ from the model scenario.