What are expected lots?

Expected lots is the model-estimated average allocation. It is not a guaranteed number of lots.

Plain meaning

It is a probability-weighted expected value across possible allocation outcomes. For example, 0.12 expected lots means the long-run average is about 0.12 lots.

Why it matters

It is better than simple win rate for comparing application tiers, but it must be read with application amount, entry fee and risk.

How to read it

Higher expected lots means more average allocation at that tier. If the tier requires much more capital, capital efficiency may still be worse.

How it appears here

HK IPO AI shows expected lots for one-lot, A-tail, B-head and other key tiers on allotment prediction pages.

Common mistakes

Reading 0.12 expected lots as a guaranteed allocation of 0.12 lots.
Comparing expected lots without comparing application amount.
Ignoring that final allotment rules can differ from the model scenario.