What is backtest hit rate?

If a stage has a 65% hit rate, about 65% of samples in that set had the predicted direction match the actual up/down outcome. Backtests also use trend confirmation, not close-to-offer return alone, and hit rate is not the same as return accuracy.

Direction hit rate tests whether the model adds signal, but it is not the same as accurate return prediction and it is not a future guarantee.

Read it with sample period, sample size, average return, median return, sample weight and deviation types. Hit rate alone can hide the impact of large misses.

The backtest page separates grey market and first-day targets, showing sample distribution, win rate, average return, median return and deviation types.