LONGSYS

09976

Numbers default to the most likely allotment pattern. Clicking another pattern only compares the table; extra-watch notes are historical comparisons and do not change the main reference.

Data updated · Sep 22, 2026, 14:40 HKT

Model basis: Strong basis

How to read this page

Start with one-lot, A-tail and B-head. The table below defaults to the most likely pattern.
The three cards are more likely allotment patterns, not a ranking contest. Clicking another card only compares how the numbers change; it does not replace the main reference.
An extra-watch note names one pattern to compare first. Click it to see how the numbers change. It is not a new main reference and not trading advice.

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

24.9%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.9%

Predicted A-tail allotted?

3.880 lots

Official A-tail allotted

10.559 lots

Predicted B-head allotted?

10.274 lots

Official B-head allotted

13.965 lots

Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool.

Public offer lots

59,979 lots

More likely allotment patterns

“Most likely” is the default method for the current numbers. The other cards are next-likely patterns for comparison. Clicking them does not replace the main reference.

Click to compare the table below. The table changes; the main reference does not.

Average allotment by tier

Key tiers are 1 lot, A-tail, B-head and top hammer. The core column is average allotted lots; the official column appears after allotment is published.

Table scenario

Larger Pool A applications get less extra allotment；Pool B allotment is similar across tiers

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount	Expected allotment value
1 lot	1	Pool A	24.9%	2.9%	Relative deviation 773.1% Absolute diff. 22.1%	0m	0m
A tail	400	Pool A	3.880 lots	10.559 lots	Relative deviation 63.3% Absolute diff. 6.679 lots	4.7m	0m
B head	600	Pool B	10.274 lots	13.965 lots	Relative deviation 26.4% Absolute diff. 3.690 lots	7.1m	0.1m
Top hammer	26,078	Pool B	432.628 lots	606.750 lots	Relative deviation 28.7% Absolute diff. 174.122 lots	307.7m	5.1m

Win-rate forecasts are informational research output. Likelihood is the published scenario view. Extra-watch notes use forward-only historical samples, do not change the main-reference numbers, are not official allotment certainty, and are not subscription advice.