TermUpdated: 2026-07-09
What is guaranteed allocation?
Guaranteed allocation usually means an application tier receives at least one lot in the final allotment pattern.
Plain meaning
It is not a promise during subscription. It is an observed or estimated threshold where applicants at a tier almost all receive at least one lot.
Why it matters
It helps estimate how much capital is needed for higher certainty, but higher certainty can come with weaker marginal efficiency.
How to read it
Read it with one-lot win rate, application amount, refund date, allotment ratio and expected listing performance.
How it appears here
Allotment prediction uses expected lots and one-lot probabilities across tiers to estimate where guaranteed allocation may begin.
Common mistakes
- Treating guaranteed allocation as guaranteed profit.
- Assuming the tier is fixed during subscription.
- Ignoring the capital needed to reach that tier.