Last updated 18:35:04
HK$122.20
-12.09%
- Listing price
- HK$139.00
- Open
- —
- High
- —
- Low
- —
- Bid / Ask
- — / —
- Volume
- —
Turnover —View source
PONY-W
02026SecondaryListed汽車/智能出行 · 小马智行是一家专注于自动驾驶技术研发与运营的公司。
PONY-W (02026) is a listed Hong Kong IPO. This page brings together the offer price, entry fee, subscription timeline, grey-market context, allotment data and stage-based reference research in one place.
- Offer price
- HK$139.00
- Final offer price
- HK$139.00
- One-lot win rate
- 55.0%
- Proceeds
- HK$6.71B
- Public oversub.
- 15.9x
Predicted 20.6%
Lot / entry fee 100 shares · HK$14K · Sponsor Goldman Sachs / Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Limited / Deutsche Securities / Huatai Financial
- Offer starts Oct 28
- /Offer closes Nov 3
- /Grey market Nov 5
- /Listing Nov 6Now
SubscriptionPONY-W: subscription-stage reference
The subscription stage draws on the prospectus, sponsor record and early public filings. Allotment results and grey-market prints have not occurred yet.
Earlier stage- Reference rating
- Cautious
- Reference score
- 52.3
- Forecast grey range
- -17.7% – -8.0%
Pre-greyPONY-W: pre-grey-market reference
The pre-grey stage includes published allotment and public oversubscription data. Grey-market prints are not yet reflected here.
Earlier stage- Reference rating
- Cautious
- Reference score
- 51.7
- Forecast grey range
- -18.7% – -8.9%
Post-greyPONY-W: post-grey-market reference
The post-grey stage includes grey-market price and turnover observations. Listing-day results still follow official trading and company announcements.
Current- Reference rating
- Cautious
- Reference score
- 39.7
- Forecast first-day range
- -39.2% – -1.5%
Data updated · Sep 22, 2026, 12:02 HKT
View factors and research
Model forecastListing-day trendHigh cautionUp probability 40.0%
Published outcome check
First-day resultDown-9.3%
Our call: Trend call valid
Covered 19/25 core factors
UsedMissingNot yet scorableN/A
Margin oversubscription
Weak heatOffer size
Weak qualityCornerstone lockup
Weak supportPost-lockup offer value
Weak scarcityRecent same-rule trend
Strong trendRecent same-type trend
—Recent sector trend
Positive trendValuation
Weak appealFundamental quality
Weak qualityGrowth quality
Weak qualityProfitability
Weak qualityCash runway
High qualityCustomer concentration
—Cornerstone quality
Strong supportSponsor record
Strong recordGreenshoe arrangementGreenshoe: yes · 15%
Average supportStabilizer track record
—A-share pre-grey trend
—A-share listing-day trend
—Public oversubscription
Weak heatOne-lot win rate
Weak heatInternational placing
High heatFinal pricing position
—Actual greenshoe useCumulative use +100.0%
Low supportGrey market return
Poor trendThe assessment and probability ranges are informational only and are not investment advice.
AI Research Report
Post-greyThe analysis report for this IPO is being generated.
PONY-W: grey-market trend
PONY-W: predicted allotment
Data updated · Sep 22, 2026, 14:40 HKT
Only key tiers are shown here. Full tiers and other allotment-pattern comparisons are on the allotment-odds page.
- 1 lot
- 20.6%
- A tail · Apply 300 lots
- 3.4 lots
- B head · Apply 400 lots
- 16.34 lots
- Top hammer
- 857.1 lots
Predicted
Official
55.0%
Predicted
Official
44.58 lots
Predicted
Official
46 lots
Predicted
Official
61 lots
Most likely allotment pattern：Larger Pool A applications get less extra allotment；Pool B allotment is similar across tiersView full allotment-odds research
How to read this page
These answers combine this IPO’s published figures with clearly labeled model estimates. They explain how to read the modules above and are not investment advice.
What is the one-lot allotment rate for PONY-W?
Public allotment filings put the official one-lot rate at 55.0%, versus this site's pre-allotment model estimate of 20.6%. It is an observation for a 1-lot application, not a guaranteed result.
What is the difference between A-tail and B-head for PONY-W?
Based on the prospectus's legal application tiers, A-tail is 300 lots and B-head is 400 lots, representing about HK$4.2M and HK$5.6M of application principal. Official average allotment was 44.58 lots and 46 lots, versus pre-allotment model estimates of 3.4 lots and 16.34 lots. Pool A and Pool B are allocated separately, so application size alone does not show capital efficiency.
Can the grey-market price of PONY-W be treated as the listing price?
The compiled grey-market observation is about -11.6%, versus -9.3% on the listing day. Grey-market prints are pre-listing sentiment from public sources, not the official opening price.
Why does PONY-W have three reference ratings?
The current status is "Listed", so start with the post-grey section. Subscription, pre-grey and post-grey each use only the public information available at that point, so the score can change. Labels are high attention / neutral / caution only — informational comparison, not a buy or subscribe call.