PONY-W

02026

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

74%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

25.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

55.0%

Public offer lots

48,249 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.252 lots	0.550 lots	Relative deviation 54.2% Absolute diff. 0.298 lots	0m	0m
A tail	300	Pool A	3.666 lots	44.584 lots	Relative deviation 91.8% Absolute diff. 40.918 lots	4.2m	0.1m
B head	400	Pool B	16.200 lots	46.000 lots	Relative deviation 64.8% Absolute diff. 29.800 lots	5.6m	0.2m
Top	20,978	Pool B	840.571 lots	61.000 lots	Relative deviation 1278.0% Absolute diff. 779.571 lots	291.6m	11.7m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.