WOER
09981Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.
Joint-scenario Top 3
Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.
To date, among stocks with published allotment results, the warning system issued10warnings of this type;8correctly identified that the primary would miss.
To date, among stocks with published allotment results, the warning system issued9warnings of this type;3ultimately matched the warned scenario: Proportional + Flat。
Subscription tiers
| Type | Lots | Pool | Predicted avg. allotted? | Official avg. allotted | Deviation | Application amount | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 lot | 1 | Pool A | 0.048 lots | 0.003 lots | Relative deviation 447.1% Absolute diff. 0.045 lots | 0m | 0m |
A tail | 1,000 | Pool A | 0.707 lots | 3.236 lots | Relative deviation 78.2% Absolute diff. 2.529 lots | 4m | 0m |
B head | 1,500 | Pool B | 1.384 lots | 1.805 lots | Relative deviation 23.3% Absolute diff. 0.421 lots | 6m | 0m |
Top | 34,997 | Pool B | 32.032 lots | 42.115 lots | Relative deviation 23.9% Absolute diff. 10.083 lots | 140.6m | 0.1m |
Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.