EASTROC

09980

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

10.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

15.0%

Public offer lots

40,889 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.106 lots	0.150 lots	Relative deviation 29.1% Absolute diff. 0.044 lots	0m	0m
A tail	200	Pool A	1.304 lots	2.000 lots	Relative deviation 34.8% Absolute diff. 0.696 lots	5m	0m
B head	300	Pool B	3.169 lots	5.887 lots	Relative deviation 46.2% Absolute diff. 2.718 lots	7.4m	0.1m
Top	20,445	Pool B	209.398 lots	213.000 lots	Relative deviation 1.7% Absolute diff. 3.602 lots	507m	5.2m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.