CHERY AUTO

09973

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

7.7%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.7%

Public offer lots

297,397 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.077 lots	0.007 lots	Relative deviation 700.6% Absolute diff. 0.070 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	1.887 lots	6.418 lots	Relative deviation 70.6% Absolute diff. 4.531 lots	3.1m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	3.668 lots	4.336 lots	Relative deviation 15.4% Absolute diff. 0.668 lots	6.2m	0m
Top	148,698	Pool B	253.793 lots	322.386 lots	Relative deviation 21.3% Absolute diff. 68.594 lots	457.2m	0.8m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.