BASICSEMI

09971

Numbers default to the most likely allotment pattern. Clicking another pattern only compares the table; extra-watch notes are historical comparisons and do not change the main reference.

Data updated · Sep 22, 2026, 14:40 HKT

Model basis: Strong basis

How to read this page

Start with one-lot, A-tail and B-head. The table below defaults to the most likely pattern.
The three cards are more likely allotment patterns, not a ranking contest. Clicking another card only compares how the numbers change; it does not replace the main reference.
An extra-watch note names one pattern to compare first. Click it to see how the numbers change. It is not a new main reference and not trading advice.

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.9%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.2%

Predicted A-tail allotted?

0.376 lots

Official A-tail allotted

1.182 lots

Predicted B-head allotted?

0.421 lots

Official B-head allotted

0.441 lots

Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool.

Public offer lots

27,384 lots

Extra watch

The main reference is less certain. After this note, compare first:

Pool A's allotment rate is roughly flat across application tiers；Pool B allotment is similar across tiers

Flat + Flat

This is not a new main reference. It is the pattern most worth checking first after this note.

More likely allotment patterns

“Most likely” is the default method for the current numbers. The other cards are next-likely patterns for comparison. Clicking them does not replace the main reference.

Click to compare the table below. The table changes; the main reference does not.

Average allotment by tier

Key tiers are 1 lot, A-tail, B-head and top hammer. The core column is average allotted lots; the official column appears after allotment is published.

Table scenario

Larger Pool A applications get less extra allotment；Pool B allotment is similar across tiers

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount	Expected allotment value
1 lot	1	Pool A	3.9%	0.2%	Relative deviation 371.1% Absolute diff. 3.7%	0m	0m
A tail	700	Pool A	0.376 lots	1.182 lots	Relative deviation 68.2% Absolute diff. 0.806 lots	4.4m	0m
B head	800	Pool B	0.421 lots	0.441 lots	Relative deviation 4.5% Absolute diff. 0.020 lots	5.1m	0m
Top hammer	3,423	Pool B	1.800 lots	1.887 lots	Relative deviation 4.6% Absolute diff. 0.086 lots	21.6m	0m

Win-rate forecasts are informational research output. Likelihood is the published scenario view. Extra-watch notes use forward-only historical samples, do not change the main-reference numbers, are not official allotment certainty, and are not subscription advice.