BASICSEMI
09971Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.
Joint-scenario Top 3
Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.
To date, among stocks with published allotment results, the warning system issued10warnings of this type;8correctly identified that the primary would miss.
To date, among stocks with published allotment results, the warning system issued9warnings of this type;3ultimately matched the warned scenario: Proportional + Flat。
Subscription tiers
| Type | Lots | Pool | Predicted avg. allotted? | Official avg. allotted | Deviation | Application amount | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 lot | 1 | Pool A | 0.047 lots | 0.002 lots | Relative deviation 450.1% Absolute diff. 0.045 lots | 0m | 0m |
A tail | 700 | Pool A | 0.489 lots | 1.182 lots | Relative deviation 58.6% Absolute diff. 0.693 lots | 4.4m | 0m |
B head | 800 | Pool B | 0.417 lots | 0.441 lots | Relative deviation 5.5% Absolute diff. 0.024 lots | 5.1m | 0m |
Top | 3,423 | Pool B | 1.766 lots | 1.887 lots | Relative deviation 6.4% Absolute diff. 0.120 lots | 21.6m | 0m |
Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.