SERES

09927

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

53%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

Public offer lots

108,619 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.028 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 71.7% Absolute diff. 0.072 lots	0m	0m
A tail	300	Pool A	2.459 lots	1.765 lots	Relative deviation 39.3% Absolute diff. 0.694 lots	3.9m	0m
B head	400	Pool B	1.842 lots	2.720 lots	Relative deviation 32.3% Absolute diff. 0.878 lots	5.3m	0m
Top	50,100	Pool B	227.968 lots	217.000 lots	Relative deviation 5.1% Absolute diff. 10.968 lots	658.8m	3m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.