ILUVATAR COREX

09903

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

7.0%

Public offer lots

25,432 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.044 lots	0.070 lots	Relative deviation 37.9% Absolute diff. 0.026 lots	0m	0m
A tail	300	Pool A	0.385 lots	0.086 lots	Relative deviation 348.4% Absolute diff. 0.299 lots	4.3m	0m
B head	400	Pool B	1.055 lots	1.300 lots	Relative deviation 18.8% Absolute diff. 0.245 lots	5.8m	0m
Top	12,716	Pool B	6.212 lots	1.607 lots	Relative deviation 286.5% Absolute diff. 4.605 lots	183.9m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.