ALEBUND-B

09637

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

5.7%

Official one-lot hit rate?

6.0%

Public offer lots

56,755 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.057 lots	0.060 lots	Relative deviation 5.0% Absolute diff. 0.003 lots	0m	0m
A tail	2,000	Pool A	0.905 lots	1.000 lots	Relative deviation 9.5% Absolute diff. 0.095 lots	4.5m	0m
B head	3,000	Pool B	4.143 lots	3.000 lots	Relative deviation 38.1% Absolute diff. 1.143 lots	6.8m	0m
Top	28,378	Pool B	18.249 lots	11.000 lots	Relative deviation 65.9% Absolute diff. 7.249 lots	64.1m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.