CFMEE

09630

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.7%

Official one-lot hit rate?

3.0%

Public offer lots

25,678 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.037 lots	0.030 lots	Relative deviation 22.6% Absolute diff. 0.007 lots	0m	0m
A tail	200	Pool A	0.195 lots	0.213 lots	Relative deviation 8.6% Absolute diff. 0.018 lots	2.5m	0m
B head	400	Pool B	0.415 lots	0.400 lots	Relative deviation 3.7% Absolute diff. 0.015 lots	5.1m	0m
Top	12,839	Pool B	4.094 lots	3.282 lots	Relative deviation 24.7% Absolute diff. 0.812 lots	162.2m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.