LONGCHEER

09611

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.2%

Public offer lots

52,259 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.048 lots	0.002 lots	Relative deviation 455.6% Absolute diff. 0.046 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.491 lots	2.026 lots	Relative deviation 75.8% Absolute diff. 1.535 lots	3.1m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	1.220 lots	1.107 lots	Relative deviation 10.2% Absolute diff. 0.113 lots	6.2m	0m
Top	26,130	Pool B	7.610 lots	14.467 lots	Relative deviation 47.4% Absolute diff. 6.857 lots	81m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.