HAIWEI ELEC

09609

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

17,728 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.022 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 119.5% Absolute diff. 0.012 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,500	Pool A	0.195 lots	0.322 lots	Relative deviation 39.4% Absolute diff. 0.127 lots	4.3m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	0.257 lots	0.600 lots	Relative deviation 57.2% Absolute diff. 0.343 lots	5.7m	0m
Top	7,708	Pool B	0.675 lots	0.609 lots	Relative deviation 10.9% Absolute diff. 0.066 lots	22m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.