GOLDEN LEAF INT

08549

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

54%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.5%

Public offer lots

2,000 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.013 lots	0.005 lots	Relative deviation 83.6% Absolute diff. 0.008 lots	0m	0m
A tailTop	2,000	Pool A	0.140 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 39.7% Absolute diff. 0.040 lots	5m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.