BAOGAI

08090

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Very steep

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.5%

Public offer lots

2,894 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.023 lots	0.005 lots	Relative deviation 184.0% Absolute diff. 0.018 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.253 lots	0.171 lots	Relative deviation 47.5% Absolute diff. 0.081 lots	3.1m	0m
B head	1,200	Pool B	0.342 lots	0.327 lots	Relative deviation 4.8% Absolute diff. 0.016 lots	3.7m	0m
Top	1,447	Pool B	0.357 lots	0.336 lots	Relative deviation 6.3% Absolute diff. 0.021 lots	4.5m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.