TOPNC
07688Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.
Joint-scenario Top 3
Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.
To date, among stocks with published allotment results, the warning system issued10warnings of this type;8correctly identified that the primary would miss.
To date, among stocks with published allotment results, the warning system issued9warnings of this type;3ultimately matched the warned scenario: Proportional + Flat。
Subscription tiers
| Type | Lots | Pool | Predicted avg. allotted? | Official avg. allotted | Deviation | Application amount | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 lot | 1 | Pool A | 0.027 lots | 0.080 lots | Relative deviation 66.0% Absolute diff. 0.053 lots | 0m | 0m |
A tail | 1,000 | Pool A | 0.232 lots | 0.152 lots | Relative deviation 53.0% Absolute diff. 0.080 lots | 2.6m | 0m |
B head | 2,000 | Pool B | 0.303 lots | 0.400 lots | Relative deviation 24.2% Absolute diff. 0.097 lots | 5.3m | 0m |
Top | 32,665 | Pool B | 4.922 lots | 4.484 lots | Relative deviation 9.8% Absolute diff. 0.438 lots | 86.2m | 0m |
Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.