EACON

07687

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

64%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

9.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

Public offer lots

52,264 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.096 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 4.1% Absolute diff. 0.004 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	1.957 lots	2.000 lots	Relative deviation 2.1% Absolute diff. 0.043 lots	4.4m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	12.570 lots	16.000 lots	Relative deviation 21.4% Absolute diff. 3.430 lots	8.8m	0.1m
Top	26,132	Pool B	72.703 lots	124.000 lots	Relative deviation 41.4% Absolute diff. 51.297 lots	114.9m	0.3m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.