METIS TECHBIO-P

07666

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

0.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.1%

Public offer lots

80,488 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.002 lots	0.001 lots	Relative deviation 2.9% Absolute diff. 0.000 lots	0m	0m
A tail	800	Pool A	0.906 lots	1.132 lots	Relative deviation 20.0% Absolute diff. 0.227 lots	4.2m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	0.348 lots	0.364 lots	Relative deviation 4.4% Absolute diff. 0.016 lots	5.3m	0m
Top	10,061	Pool B	3.481 lots	3.660 lots	Relative deviation 4.9% Absolute diff. 0.179 lots	52.8m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.