IMPACT THERAP-B

07630

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.9%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.5%

Public offer lots

20,988 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.029 lots	0.015 lots	Relative deviation 92.8% Absolute diff. 0.014 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.241 lots	0.490 lots	Relative deviation 50.8% Absolute diff. 0.249 lots	4m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	0.544 lots	0.634 lots	Relative deviation 14.3% Absolute diff. 0.091 lots	6m	0m
Top	10,494	Pool B	1.990 lots	2.681 lots	Relative deviation 25.8% Absolute diff. 0.691 lots	42.2m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.