JD INDUSTRIALS

07618

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

62%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

15.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

35.0%

Public offer lots

105,605 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.156 lots	0.350 lots	Relative deviation 55.4% Absolute diff. 0.194 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,500	Pool A	5.232 lots	10.000 lots	Relative deviation 47.7% Absolute diff. 4.768 lots	4.2m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	20.344 lots	52.000 lots	Relative deviation 60.9% Absolute diff. 31.656 lots	5.6m	0.1m
Top	52,802	Pool B	512.707 lots	489.000 lots	Relative deviation 4.8% Absolute diff. 23.707 lots	148.9m	1.4m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.