BAMA TEA

06980

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.8%

Public offer lots

9,000 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.026 lots	0.008 lots	Relative deviation 175.9% Absolute diff. 0.018 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.297 lots	0.222 lots	Relative deviation 33.6% Absolute diff. 0.075 lots	5m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	0.459 lots	0.451 lots	Relative deviation 1.9% Absolute diff. 0.009 lots	7.5m	0m
Top	4,500	Pool B	0.807 lots	1.311 lots	Relative deviation 38.5% Absolute diff. 0.505 lots	22.5m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.