SHUANGDENG

06960

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

53%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.5%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.1%

Public offer lots

11,711 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.015 lots	0.001 lots	Relative deviation 147.2% Absolute diff. 0.015 lots	0m	0m
A tail	600	Pool A	0.113 lots	0.347 lots	Relative deviation 67.5% Absolute diff. 0.234 lots	4.4m	0m
B head	800	Pool B	0.145 lots	0.133 lots	Relative deviation 9.0% Absolute diff. 0.012 lots	5.8m	0m
Top	5,856	Pool B	0.572 lots	0.972 lots	Relative deviation 41.2% Absolute diff. 0.401 lots	42.5m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.