CCTC

06951

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

64%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

5.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.7%

Public offer lots

71,365 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.056 lots	0.007 lots	Relative deviation 495.0% Absolute diff. 0.050 lots	0m	0m
A tail	400	Pool A	0.647 lots	2.760 lots	Relative deviation 76.5% Absolute diff. 2.112 lots	4m	0m
B head	500	Pool B	2.024 lots	0.980 lots	Relative deviation 106.4% Absolute diff. 1.043 lots	5m	0m
Top	35,682	Pool B	33.825 lots	69.939 lots	Relative deviation 51.6% Absolute diff. 36.114 lots	357.9m	0.3m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.