RIBOLIFE-B

06938

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Gradual

Joint probability

48%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.7%

Public offer lots

15,805 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.013 lots	0.017 lots	Relative deviation 26.1% Absolute diff. 0.004 lots	0m	0m
A tail	400	Pool A	4.598 lots	6.261 lots	Relative deviation 26.6% Absolute diff. 1.664 lots	4.6m	0.1m
B head	450	Pool B	4.501 lots	3.227 lots	Relative deviation 39.5% Absolute diff. 1.274 lots	5.2m	0.1m
Top	6,872	Pool B	32.032 lots	49.294 lots	Relative deviation 35.0% Absolute diff. 17.262 lots	79.7m	0.4m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.