MOMENTA-W

06880

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Gradual

Joint probability

48%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

0.5%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

99,692 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.005 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 90.8% Absolute diff. 0.045 lots	0m	0m
Top	49,846	Pool B	33.667 lots	18.373 lots	Relative deviation 83.2% Absolute diff. 15.295 lots	294.7m	0.2m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.