MONTAGE TECH

06809

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

64%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

65,890 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.042 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 16.6% Absolute diff. 0.008 lots	0m	0m
A tail	400	Pool A	0.333 lots	0.800 lots	Relative deviation 58.4% Absolute diff. 0.467 lots	4.3m	0m
B head	500	Pool B	0.568 lots	0.675 lots	Relative deviation 15.8% Absolute diff. 0.107 lots	5.3m	0m
Top	32,945	Pool B	9.919 lots	15.000 lots	Relative deviation 33.9% Absolute diff. 5.081 lots	352.1m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.