BEFAR GROUP

06745

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

64%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

9.0%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

35,212 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.090 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 79.8% Absolute diff. 0.040 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	1.503 lots	2.000 lots	Relative deviation 24.9% Absolute diff. 0.497 lots	3.5m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	7.867 lots	7.000 lots	Relative deviation 12.4% Absolute diff. 0.867 lots	5.2m	0m
Top	17,606	Pool B	40.663 lots	40.000 lots	Relative deviation 1.7% Absolute diff. 0.663 lots	61.3m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.