XUNLONG SCITECH

06715

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

59%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.5%

Official one-lot hit rate?

3.0%

Public offer lots

16,333 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.025 lots	0.030 lots	Relative deviation 15.4% Absolute diff. 0.005 lots	0m	0m
A tail	600	Pool A	0.212 lots	0.123 lots	Relative deviation 72.7% Absolute diff. 0.089 lots	4.5m	0m
B head	700	Pool B	0.309 lots	0.350 lots	Relative deviation 11.9% Absolute diff. 0.042 lots	5.3m	0m
Top	8,166	Pool B	1.553 lots	1.136 lots	Relative deviation 36.7% Absolute diff. 0.417 lots	61.7m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.