JST GROUP

06687

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.1%

Public offer lots

68,166 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.031 lots	0.001 lots	Relative deviation 297.5% Absolute diff. 0.030 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.362 lots	1.207 lots	Relative deviation 70.0% Absolute diff. 0.845 lots	3.1m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	0.562 lots	0.643 lots	Relative deviation 12.7% Absolute diff. 0.081 lots	6.1m	0m
Top	34,083	Pool B	9.540 lots	10.955 lots	Relative deviation 12.9% Absolute diff. 1.415 lots	104.3m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.