SENASIC

06675

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.0%

Public offer lots

26,704 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.022 lots	0.020 lots	Relative deviation 11.5% Absolute diff. 0.002 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.157 lots	0.208 lots	Relative deviation 24.6% Absolute diff. 0.051 lots	3.7m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	0.231 lots	0.300 lots	Relative deviation 23.2% Absolute diff. 0.069 lots	5.5m	0m
Top	13,352	Pool B	0.975 lots	0.921 lots	Relative deviation 5.9% Absolute diff. 0.054 lots	49m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.