LIULIUMEI

06658

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.4%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.5%

Public offer lots

11,465 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.014 lots	0.015 lots	Relative deviation 9.4% Absolute diff. 0.001 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.137 lots	0.178 lots	Relative deviation 23.3% Absolute diff. 0.042 lots	4.4m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	0.171 lots	0.222 lots	Relative deviation 22.9% Absolute diff. 0.051 lots	6.5m	0m
Top	5,732	Pool B	0.415 lots	0.477 lots	Relative deviation 13.1% Absolute diff. 0.062 lots	25m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.