SIGENERGY

06656

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.0%

Public offer lots

13,574 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.018 lots	0.020 lots	Relative deviation 9.5% Absolute diff. 0.002 lots	0m	0m
A tail	100	Pool A	0.095 lots	0.110 lots	Relative deviation 13.3% Absolute diff. 0.015 lots	3.2m	0m
B head	200	Pool B	0.182 lots	0.200 lots	Relative deviation 9.2% Absolute diff. 0.018 lots	6.5m	0m
Top	6,787	Pool B	0.992 lots	1.250 lots	Relative deviation 20.6% Absolute diff. 0.258 lots	220m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.