51WORLD

06651

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

53%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

22.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

Public offer lots

23,976 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.228 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 127.6% Absolute diff. 0.128 lots	0m	0m
A tail	800	Pool A	3.912 lots	4.480 lots	Relative deviation 12.7% Absolute diff. 0.568 lots	4.9m	0m
B head	900	Pool B	11.781 lots	12.692 lots	Relative deviation 7.2% Absolute diff. 0.911 lots	5.5m	0.1m
Top	2,997	Pool B	21.782 lots	39.703 lots	Relative deviation 45.1% Absolute diff. 17.921 lots	18.3m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.