EXTREME VISION

06636

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

6.9%

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

Public offer lots

49,920 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.069 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 31.1% Absolute diff. 0.031 lots	0m	0m
A tail	2,000	Pool A	1.060 lots	0.448 lots	Relative deviation 136.3% Absolute diff. 0.612 lots	4m	0m
B head	3,000	Pool B	1.932 lots	2.400 lots	Relative deviation 19.5% Absolute diff. 0.468 lots	6m	0m
Top	6,240	Pool B	2.698 lots	3.405 lots	Relative deviation 20.8% Absolute diff. 0.707 lots	12.5m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.