MERDEKAGOLD-DRS

06228

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

56.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

100.0%

Public offer lots

89,668 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.563 lots	1.000 lots	Relative deviation 43.7% Absolute diff. 0.437 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	35.743 lots	66.000 lots	Relative deviation 45.8% Absolute diff. 30.257 lots	2.7m	0.1m
B head	2,000	Pool B	329.921 lots	500.000 lots	Relative deviation 34.0% Absolute diff. 170.079 lots	5.3m	0.9m
Top	44,834	Pool B	7,089.570 lots	11,001.000 lots	Relative deviation 35.6% Absolute diff. 3,911.430 lots	119.3m	18.9m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.