CIG

06166

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

59%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

12.5%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

134,021 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.125 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 149.6% Absolute diff. 0.075 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,400	Pool A	1.896 lots	3.954 lots	Relative deviation 52.1% Absolute diff. 2.058 lots	4.8m	0m
B head	1,600	Pool B	4.227 lots	4.480 lots	Relative deviation 5.6% Absolute diff. 0.253 lots	5.5m	0m
Top	67,010	Pool B	60.455 lots	87.000 lots	Relative deviation 30.5% Absolute diff. 26.545 lots	230.8m	0.2m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.