HJ SCIENCE-B

06132

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

61%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.0%

Public offer lots

13,600 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.021 lots	0.020 lots	Relative deviation 6.5% Absolute diff. 0.001 lots	0m	0m
A tail	600	Pool A	0.198 lots	0.188 lots	Relative deviation 5.4% Absolute diff. 0.010 lots	4.9m	0m
B head	700	Pool B	0.329 lots	0.355 lots	Relative deviation 7.2% Absolute diff. 0.026 lots	5.7m	0m
Top	6,800	Pool B	1.052 lots	1.224 lots	Relative deviation 14.1% Absolute diff. 0.172 lots	55.6m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.