BUTONG GROUP

06090

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

52%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

10,981 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.021 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 112.0% Absolute diff. 0.011 lots	0m	0m
A tail	700	Pool A	0.165 lots	0.214 lots	Relative deviation 22.8% Absolute diff. 0.049 lots	5m	0m
B head	800	Pool B	0.185 lots	0.240 lots	Relative deviation 23.2% Absolute diff. 0.056 lots	5.7m	0m
Top	5,490	Pool B	0.653 lots	1.000 lots	Relative deviation 34.7% Absolute diff. 0.347 lots	39.1m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.