BIREN TECH

06082

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

7.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

284,852 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.072 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 44.4% Absolute diff. 0.022 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.983 lots	2.000 lots	Relative deviation 50.9% Absolute diff. 1.017 lots	3.9m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	2.541 lots	3.000 lots	Relative deviation 15.3% Absolute diff. 0.459 lots	5.9m	0m
Top	30,962	Pool B	9.906 lots	13.000 lots	Relative deviation 23.8% Absolute diff. 3.094 lots	121.4m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.