SENIOR MATERIAL

06067

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.1%

Public offer lots

29,904 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.038 lots	0.001 lots	Relative deviation 374.3% Absolute diff. 0.037 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.356 lots	0.971 lots	Relative deviation 63.3% Absolute diff. 0.615 lots	4.5m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	1.420 lots	0.954 lots	Relative deviation 48.8% Absolute diff. 0.466 lots	9m	0m
Top	14,952	Pool B	3.668 lots	7.132 lots	Relative deviation 48.6% Absolute diff. 3.464 lots	67.1m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.